NFL Playoffs Divisional Round: Analytics predict winners, including Bills vs Ravens, for second round games
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NFL Playoffs Divisional Round: Analytics predict winners, including Bills vs Ravens, for second round games

The opening round of NFL playoffs was anything but “wild” despite the Wild Card name for the round. All but one game ended with a double-digit victory. The Washington’s commander edged out Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 to give general NFL fans something exciting to experience.

In many ways, the start of the NFL playoffs mirrored the start of the College Football Playoffs. The pros are now hoping they can have some of the fireworks we saw in the next rounds of the CFP.

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs seems ripe for doing just that. There are many x-factors around NFCthe Baltimore Ravens have created a threat of attack and preparing to fight Buffalo Bills in a “kaiju fight” in AFC while the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs take the field against a very good defense that can give them problems.

That’s barely half of it RB Saquon Barkley tries to carry the Philadelphia Eagles against a team with championship proven ability, rookie QB Jayden Daniels looks to nail it i (very damaged) Detroit Lions dream season and so much more.

Last week, we once again presented our analytical forecast for the NFL playoffs. Even though it is perfect in the 2023 Wild Card roundThe 2025 version did not fare as well. Only three of our six predictions turned out to be correct, but that doesn’t stop us from continuing to use DVOA, a metric that breaks down quality of play compared to league average while also adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played, to try to help predict the divisional round.

DVOA is one of a couple of overall analytics measures that help us better understand the beautiful game of soccer.

Trying to predict the results of these games, when the best are playing their best, is difficult. Players on FanDuel, and FanDuel themselves, look for every bit of information to help make their predictions.

Interestingly, the two teams that received the top seed and bye in their conference were not the overall DVOA team during the regular season. For the second year in a row, that honor went to the Baltimore Ravens with an overall DVOA of 41.4%, down from 45.5% last year. The Detroit Lions is second overall with 34.8% while Kansas City Chiefs is all the way down to eight at 14.7%

To be clear, DVOA is not perfect, nor would it claim to predict the winners of certain games. Too many variables that cannot be codified, such as weather, injuries, tenure and more, can play a role in a one-game test.

While DVOA only hit .500 in the Wild Card round, let’s take a look at what it predicts for the divisional round.


Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

  • Total DVOA: Kansas City 8th vs. Houston 16th
  • Offensive DVOA: Kansas City 8th vs. Houston 26th
  • Defensive DVOA: Kansas City 12th vs. Houston 3rd

Edge: Chess – The defending champions vs. the surprise of the AFC Wild Card round. As mentioned above is Texas defense could make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes, but based on the data, Kansas City should get by AFC Championship game again.

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

  • Total DVOA: Detroit 2nd vs Washington 10th
  • Offensive DVOA: Detroit 3rd vs Washington 6th
  • Defensive DVOA: Detroit 5th vs Washington 23rd

Edge: Lions – One of the potential shortcomings of analytics predictions is the inability to fully account for damage. For Detroit, along with Daniel’s uncanny ability as a rookie, injuries are the biggest concern that could harpoon their stellar season. However, the data says the Lions should win comfortably this week.

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles

  • Total DVOA: Los Angeles 17th vs. Philadelphia 5th
  • Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles 10th vs. Philadelphia 13th
  • Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles 26th vs. Philadelphia 1st

Edge: Eagles – Besides injuries, another variable that cannot be captured is championship experience. The Rams limped through the season but looked like contenders in the Wild Card round. If that LA team shows up this week, Philadelphia will have all they can handle. If whoever posted the worst DVOA of any playoff team during the regular season is on the field, the Eagles should roll to victory.

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

  • Total DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs. Buffalo 4th
  • Offensive DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs. Buffalo 2nd
  • Defensive DVOA: Baltimore 6th vs. Buffalo 11th

Edge: Ravens – The data says what everyone already knows: This game should be exciting. The biggest difference comes on the defensive side of the ball where Buffalo has had to cobble together a quality unit all season. Lamar Jackson needs at least one more win to shake off his playoff failures while Josh Allen may have to knock off Mahomes before he gets the credit he’s due. The Ravens have the edge here in a game that should be the highlight of the weekend.


DVOA was far from perfect to start the NFL playoffs, but the data provides additional information when making betting decisions, discussing the playoffs with your colleagues, or making daily fantasy decisions.

We are excited to see the games played on the field and see if DVOA can do a better job this week than last week in predicting the games.