Let’s talk about the next USA-Israel Military Assistance Agreement
7 mins read

Let’s talk about the next USA-Israel Military Assistance Agreement

When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets President Trump in the White House this week, the two leaders should announce the launch of negotiations on the next US-Israel military-assistant memorial for understanding.

Of course, other pressing issues will also raise their attention: cementing ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, secure release of the remaining Israeli hostages, a potential Israeli-Saudi-Normalization agreement and the Iranian nuclear program. But getting calls on the next Mou should not wait.

The Current 10-year agreementAs I helped negotiate when I served as US ambassador for Israel, Israel gives $ 3.3 billion in foreign military financing and $ 500 million for missile defense programs annually, for a total sum of $ 38 billion. It goes through the budget in 2028. A new 10-year-old Mou, who begins in budget in 2029, would control us help with Israel for a decade after President Trump made his access.

That start date may seem far away. But it is less than four years away, and these negotiations will be time -consuming. We began to negotiate the present Mou after President Obamas Visit Israel in March 2013 and took out until September 2016 to sign it. Some advised Netanyahu to wait for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump in the hope of a better deal, but both sides agreed that it was crucial to sign two years before the former Mou went out. That time enabled the Israel defense power to make decisions on major acquisitions with realistic financing forecasts – including at Additional F-35 aircraft Even before the new agreement came into force. To fulfill that timeline for the next MOU, negotiators will have less than two years, and it will be a sprint.

These negotiations will be complex. First, it will be challenging for Israel to assess its future defense needs. Israel’s longest war, which began Inoctober 2023, has not been completely packed, but it has reshaped the Middle East. It has also forced IDF to a much higher than normal operating pace, increased wear on its equipment and spent a huge volume ammunition. The current Mou has enabled Israel to buy a third squadron of F-35S25 F-15IA hunting aircraft and four KC-46A tanker. But the new MOU is likely to need to finance upgrade or compensation for Israel’s aging F-16 and the purchase of additional F-15ias. Israel’s security assignment stocks adopted by Congress and President Biden signed in 2024 gives $ 14.1 billion To help re -supply ammunition. But Israel won’t want to go through defects It experienced in this war.

The specific systems are only part of the assessment. These needs must be mapped against a projection of what the Middle East will look like for the next 15 to 20 years, when the arms purchased under the new Mou will be hired. How will the threats develop, whether it is from Iran, its terrorist proxy or other actors? What new offensive techniques can be spread, which unmanned aircraft have in recent years? What capacities will be needed to defend against them? And how should Israel distribute its defense spending over its strengths? These issues require deep discussions between us and Israeli teams, and they will take time.

2016 MOU contained an innovation: dedicated, stable average $ 500 million per year-for missile defense program, rather than being subject to ups and downs in the congressional supply negotiations. It did not prevent supplementary appropriations 2022 ($ 1 billion) or 2024 ($ 5.2 billion) to replenish Iron Dome and David Sling listeners used in war and to further develop Iron beam Laser Air Defense system. Further supplementary appropriations may be needed before the next MOU to replenish Arrow 2 and 3 listeners, after their use against Iranian Ballistic Missile attacks in April and October 2024.

But Mou will also have to deal with the spreading UAV and the ballistic missile threat and expansion and upgrade of defensive systems that it requires. This is a global problem, but as the past year has shown, no country faces it more acute than Israel, even though the United States has helped defend Israel with a against-uav-air defense coalitionThe Offshore missile defense assetsand one Thaad Battery on land. Israeli and American planners must evaluate what this threat will look like 2040 and thereafter. What benefits and efficiency can be derived from expanding a properly regional integrated air and missile defense network, once Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relationships? Which new technology, like Iron Beam, can make these air and missile defense more cost-effective? And what other techniques and program-incurring ongoing US-Israel works with counter-testing and CyberHot can be brought into Mou, since missile defense was in the last negotiation?

All this will be expensive. President Trump supports Israel and will undoubtedly want to help meet his defense needs. And he may want his name on a big, beautiful business. But as in all negotiations, there will be back pressure and leverage opportunities. Three questions stand out.

First, Mou could be negotiated in the light of dramatic regional development. A possible Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement, as the Saudis say, requires a path to some form of Palestinian government. Can Trump use Mou as a sweetener to get Netanyahu to swallow the bitter pill? Would it be paired with a US-Israel defense treaty? With Iran’s power of attorney weakening, how does the next tour of Iran’s nuclear program-tougher sanctions, a Trump negotiation agreement or a military strike-to influence Israel’s perception of the Iranian threat?

Secondly, Israel has enormous defense needs, and its first asks will be high. But the United States has other FMF recipients that they provide, including Egypt and Jordan, two important partners in Israel. Trump seems determined to shrink almost all federal spending. If the global FMF takes a cut while Israeli FMF increases, Israel can ultimately receive a large percentage of the total. Already Israel’s $ 3.3 billion is annual FMF (does not count the large 2024 supplement) a little more than half of the global sum. Israel and its supporters have generally benefited larger global foreign aid budgets, so Israel is not so exposed by getting the vast majority of these dollars, a concern that can be raised after Gaza.

Third, the current MOU phases out a long-lasting program called off-shore procurement (OSP), unique to Israel, which allowed Israel to use up to 26.3 percent of its FMF agents to buy from Israeli defense contractors. Israel opposed this settlement in the negotiations and claimed that its defense -industrial base would be affected. Obama saw Israel’s defense industry as mature enough to stand on his own and wanted FMF dollars spent in the United States, where they create American jobs. Israel could try to revive this provision, especially with its need to increase domestic defense production after the war. But they can meet Trump who supports Obama’s logic that the money should be spent at home.

So there is a lot to do and some time to waste. Appoint the law and start the conversations.

Daniel B. Shapiro served as US ambassador to Israel from 2011 to 2017, and most recently, as vice deputy defense secretary for the Middle East’s policy.