RBI Monetary Policy: Experts predict 25 BPS in Repo and no change in CRR
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RBI Monetary Policy: Experts predict 25 BPS in Repo and no change in CRR

CNBC-TV18’s citizens Monetary policy committeeWith experts such as Samiran Chakraborty (Chief Economist, India at Citi), Sajjid Chinoy (Chief India Economist at JPMorgan), Sonal warm (Managing Director and Chief Economist, India and Asia Ex-Japan at Nomura), Pronab Sen (formerly Chief Statistics) Soumya Kanti Ghosh (Group Manager Financial Advisor, SBI), gathered to discuss the challenges that confront India’s reserve bank (RBI) and its MPC, together with the possible measures they can take.

Chinoy, warm, Ghosh and Chakraborty expect a 25 point cut in the repo rate at the MPC meeting planned for February 5-7, while then predicts that MPC will maintain the current interest rate.

When it comes to the Cash Reserve ratio (CRR), all experts agree that MPC is unlikely to make any adjustments.

New budget changes have provided the relief of the middle class, but at the same time has reduced allocations for decisive sectors such as education, health and social services. These cuts mainly affect lower income population, which is the majority.

According to Sen, the broader concern is whether these individuals will need to redistribute their consumption patterns due to reduced social spending, which can potentially lead to overall negative economic results.

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Chinoy believes that global growth can slow down while the United States remains resistant due to fiscal policy and liberalization. This poses challenges for emerging markets, which are facing weaker exports and limited political answers due to a strong US dollar and high US interest rates.

India’s inflation stabilizes with 4–4.5%, driven by carpet services and non-commerce, says warm. While currency depreciation usually raises inflation, weak demand limits its impact. Falling prices for vegetables, pulses and edible oils facilitate inflation pressure.

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Despite uncertainty in the Rabi crop, heading inflation, which was 5.2% in December, is expected to fall below 4.5% and stay within this range next year, she said.

Ghosh sees Rupie movements not only by the US dollar but also of India’s economic growth. While global factors are important, diocesan activity plays a key role. Growth forecasts for 2025–26 remain stable and emphasize the need to focus on long -term economic trends rather than short -term currency fluctuations.

For the entire interview, see the accompanying video