A new study Published in Communication the earth and the environment Provides possible insight into the pre -excitement of sea ice depletion and the formation of Arctic cyclones. Led by Steven Cavallo, professor at the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma, the study can lead to more accurate weather and climate models and better forecasts for Arctic cyclones.

Since 1979, the Arctic sea area, a term describing the area of ​​the Arctic Sea covered by ICE, has decreased by 40% during the late summer months. Global Climate models has consistently been disposed of that decrease. The study investigates what Cavallo and his co -authors call “very fast sea ice events” or Vriles. The sea ice decline since 1979 is the sum of many Vriles that individually occur during periods of 5 to 18 days.

Cavallo’s publication suggests that Arctic cyclones are at least partially the indication. Arctic cyclones are weather phenomena that are difficult to predict and even more difficult to integrate into models. Although the exact mechanisms for why these cyclones can accelerate the ice loss not entirely understood, Cavallo suggests two theories. The first is the interaction between turbulent seas with ice.

“If the winds become strong and the ice is enough thin ( cyclone) can create waves that break the larger ice floes. Breaking them up into smaller ice floes speeds up the melting; It can happen in a really fast time scale, he said.

The second theory is that the build -up, the mixture of warmer water under the sea surface with cooler water at the surface, increases the temperature that helps to melt the younger, thinner ice from below in a short time.

Observations of these events and their effects are difficult. Vessels avoid forecasted storms, and a plane could not fly into an Arctic cyclone enough close to the sea’s surface to collect data on build -up or wave -IS interactions.

Cavallo says they have discovered that cyclones must be in the right place to make such a drastic difference in the sea ice and need to occur over an area with thin ice that is usually no more than a year old.

The research also proposes a link between Arctic cyclones and tropopaus polar swirls or circulation in the upper troposphere above Polar regions.

Cavallo said that tropopaus polar swirls sometimes exist for months before an Arctic cyclone form, while Arctic cyclones are usually only predicted several days in advance. Since the swirls are so far before a cyclone, they can lead to better forecasts for cyclones. This would benefit the residents in areas such as Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland and help Maritime industrywhich has increased with the Arctic as the ice continues to subside.

“Now that we believe that these processes occur, the question is how we get that information to the models so that we can get better predictions,” Cavallo said. “It’s a difficult task.”

Cavallo says that the broader scientific community is still uncertain when the Arctic will be ice -free, but the threatening lack of ice can have a significant impact on large -scale atmospheric dynamics in the northern hemisphere.

“We are still trying to find out exactly how sea ice changes will affect some of the extreme weather that is happening right now.”