A four -year forecast for new car sales from Cox Automotive reveals a positive track for adoption of electric vehicles (EV) in the UK.

The new forecasts give a first look at the potential growth in the market in 2028, when gasoline is expected to represent just under a third (30%) of new registrations such as EVS takeover, with a predicted share of 36%.

Notwithstanding this does not fall Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate Goals, it is a positive sign for the industry.

When looking at the changes over the past four years, Diesel’s market share has continued to reduce the representative of just over 6% in 2024 – a decrease of more than 2 million units, or a decline of 76.21%.

While they still retain most, gasoline has also seen a decrease, with a loss of 1.4 million units, which corresponds to a decline of 26.61% during the same period.

Compared to the previous four -year period, the increase in EVS in full battery has been remarkable, says Cox Automotive, with an astonishing increase of almost 560%.

Since 2020, approximately 979,000 EV have entered the market and have only taken shy for 20% of the total market in 2024.

Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive, said: “The next four years will remain volatile when the sector adapts to economic headwinds and ever -developing consumers’ demands.

“We will continue to testify about the emergence of new manufacturers, including those from China and other international markets, while sitting manufacturers adapt their marketing strategies. All while the industry responds and adapts to increasingly different local and internal regulations. ”

Electric vehicle share of the new car market

Source: Cox Automotive

The 2025 baseline forecast predicts just over two million car registrations, a modest increase of 1.5% in 2024. However, volumes remain 13.3% behind the 2001-2019 average.

Global production of cars and light commercial vehicles has steadily increased and is expected to stabilize to 2025-28.

The registrations came under the two million brand in 2024, which resulted in a significant deficit of 1.7 million fewer vehicles on British roads between 2020-24.

This challenge was further exacerbated by the slow recovery of private buyers, whose registrations have decreased by 19.2% within the same time frame.

The new market will also be changed by a number of new brands that are now available to British drivers. After a variety of new market operators in 2024, including BYDThe JaecooThe Omoda and SkywellThe UK is now home to over 60 manufacturers.

These challengers brands will come in strong, which drives traditional manufacturers to work harder to maintain their customer bases and keep up with developing technology from these new brands.

Nothard continued: “Breaking the two million brand in new car registrations in 2025 will be an important milestone for Britain’s car recovery.

“Achieving this goal will be strongly dependent on the ability of new market players to establish their brands and build trust with British drivers.

“Confidence in the fleet and leasing sectors will also play a crucial role in maintaining growth and drive the transition to alternative fuel vehicles.”

Cox Automotive Insight Quarterly (Q1 2025) Has new consumer insights from a joint study with regit, as well as new and used car forecasts for 2025 and thereafter.