Here’s Who’s Winning In Key Swing States
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Here’s Who’s Winning In Key Swing States

Kaneb0

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris is vying to become only the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years, as most polls show her and former President Donald Trump in a close contest—with Trump holding a slight advantage in two new surveys released this week and Harris ahead in two others.

Key Facts

Harris leads 48%-46% in a New York Times/Siena survey out Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points), and she’s up 48%-47% among likely voters in a CNN/SSRS poll out Thursday (margin of error 4.5 points).

Trump has a 49%-47% advantage over Harris among likely voters—and 4% chose another candidate—in a Fox News poll released Wednesday, although his lead shrinks to one point (50%-49%) in a two-way matchup, within the three-point margin of error.

Trump is also ahead among likely voters in North Carolina 50%-48% in a Cooperative Election Study poll out last week, a large national survey backed by universities and conducted by YouGov (2,308 respondents).

Trump leads likely voters by the same margins, 50% to 48%, in both a Marist poll and an Emerson poll earlier this month, and is up 49.6%-48.5% in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released Oct. 23, all within the surveys’ margins of error (3.1 points for Emerson, 3.6 for Marist and 4 points for Bloomberg).

The Cook Political Report moved North Carolina from “lean Republican” to a “toss up” in late August, writing that the state “looks more competitive than ever” since Harris’ entrance into the race, while Cook’s latest survey released earlier this month shows Harris and Trump tied , after Harris led by one point here in August.

Surprising Fact

If Harris wins the state, she has a nearly 90% chance of winning the election, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s Voter Power Indexwhich found Trump would have an upwards-of-80% chance of winning the electoral college if he wins North Carolina.

Key Background

North Carolina has only voted for one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980: Barack Obama in 2008. North Carolina’s shift to the left has largely been credited to a population increase among potential voters who typically back Democrats—including the highly educated—especially from a 5.6% increase since 2020 near the “research triangle” area of ​​Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, according to the Brookings Institution. That area hosts three major research universities—Duke University, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and North Carolina University—that have also sparked related industries in high tech and the life sciences, and made it the tenth-fastest growing area in the country , according to Brookings. And the overall percentage of North Carolinians with a bachelor’s degree—a Democratic-leaning demographic—has also increased by 1.4 million since 1990, according to a study by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

What To Watch For

Whether scandals surrounding GOP gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Govt. Mark Robinson, could hurt Trump’s chances in North Carolina. Trump endorsed Robinson prior to a CNN report revealing a string of racist and derogatory comments he allegedly made on a pornographic website chat forum before his entrance into politics, including referring to himself as a “Black NAZI.” Polls taken after the Sept. 19 story show Democratic candidate Josh Stein has widened his lead over Robinson, to as many as 19 points in a recent Emerson College survey. A CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 27 also found Robinson trailing Stein by 17 points and a tie between Trump and Harris, suggesting Robinson’s scandals haven’t affected Trump’s standing there. Historically, the demise of down-ballot candidates rarely drag down the affiliated party’s presidential candidate, CNN notes.

Big Number

16. That’s how many electoral college votes North Carolina has, after gaining a vote after the 2020 census. The state has the eighth most electoral votes in the country, tied with Georgia.

Contra

Despite the electorate’s increasingly Democratic leanings, Republicans hold a supermajority in both chambers of the legislature, giving it the power to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes.

Further Reading

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leads Or Ties Trump In All Battleground States, Latest Survey Finds (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads By 6 Points In Latest Likely Voter Survey (Forbes)

Website https://drenews.diycanadavisa.ca

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