Allan Lichtman predicts Kamala Harris’ win, Nate Silver’s model says Trump will win.

The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is close. There is a parallel race going on among the pollsters as to who comes closest to the actual result. Poll Guru Nate Silverwho is a statistician, said recently that the pollsters are throwing their numbers to predict a close race — while the race is close, some of the predictions have it too close to have no face loss in the event of either a Trump or a Kamala victory.
Nate Silver’s prediction all along was a toss-up but in October he said his gut feeling is that Donald Trump will win.
In a polar opposite is a professor at American University Allan Lichtman who is called the Nostradamus of the American election because he correctly predicted nine out of ten in the last presidential election. Lichtman says Kamala Harris would win the election.
Nate Silver vs Allan Lichtman
Their method is also different as Allan Lichtman doesn’t rely on any polls but 13 keys and Kamala Harris was before Trump. Silver and Lichtman clashed over their methods because Silver said Lichtman’s method favored Donald Trump but he predicted a Kamala Harris win.
Silver is a statistician and Lichtman is a historian and both have their records to speak for them. Lichtman predicted nine out of ten recent elections since 1984 except for the 2000 presidential election between George W Bush and Al Gore. Nate Silver’s model in 2008 correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 out of 50 states. His model since then correctly predicted the outcome in 2012 and 2020. However, in 2016 he got it wrong as his model suggested a likely victory for Hillary Clinton.
Experts are divided on whose method is better but one will be proven wrong in this election as they bet on the rival candidates.