TAMPA, Fla. – A budding weather disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is increasingly likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next few days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The system, named Invest 97L by the NHC, remained a group of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea as of Sunday morning. However, it has an 80% chance of developing over the next two days and a 90% chance over the next week.

A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form as the system moves north to northwest over the central and western Caribbean, according to the NHC. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Invest 97L later Sunday.

“Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over parts of the contiguous land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba,” the NHC said in its latest forecast. “Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the development of this system as Tropical Storm Watches or warnings may be required later today or tonight for parts of the area.”

With a subtropical system in the North Atlantic named Patty on Saturday, should this Caribbean disturbance reach tropical storm strength, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic list is Rafael.

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“There is a general consensus in the computer forecast model projections that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength by the time it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “A dense plume of tropical moisture is expected to rotate northward with the potential storm. This will increase the flood threat in the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico beginning Monday. Some of the moisture may reach South Florida by midweek.”

But Norcross says once the system is in the bay, the forecast becomes fuzzy with weaker steering currents adding uncertainty to the forecast.

“If the system remains relatively weak, it looks more likely to drift westward, perhaps toward the Mexican coast,” Norcross said. “However, if it is on the stronger side, it could continue north towards some part of the US Gulf Coast.”

But the storm could still find hostile atmospheric conditions if it tries to approach the United States, with very dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and an unfavorable upper-level wind pattern.

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“So, while it’s possible — Rafael could strengthen in the southern Gulf, a significant coastal storm looks unlikely, based on what we know now,” Norcross said, adding if the system ever reached the coast, on the current schedule, it should happen around next weekend.

“Obviously, we’ll have another week to look at the tropics, although the odds of a significant storm affecting the U.S. appear to be low,” he said. “Forecasts for a week from now are of course always fuzzy, so stay tuned.”

Another disturbance near the Caribbean Sea may combine with 97L

The NHC is also monitoring an area of ​​low pressure near the northeastern Caribbean Sea, but this system has a low chance of developing over the next few days.

“Some heavy tropical downpours will affect the northeastern Caribbean islands over the next few days as the system tracks west,” Norcross said. “(This) week it will likely be absorbed by the growing disturbance in the Caribbean.”

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a low chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next few days. Even if that were to happen, however, it would not change the expected weather, Norcross said.

North Atlantic: Subtropical Storm Patty affects the Azores

In the North Atlantic, subtropical storm Patty tracked over the Azores on Sunday.

Patty had sustained winds of 45 mph and was beginning to move away from the southeastern Azores, the NHC said.

Tropical storm conditions were expected in the Azores through Sunday afternoon, along with rainfall amounts of up to 4 inches early Monday.

The remnants of the storm could eventually reach Portugal and western Spain by the beginning of the week.

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