How real a Heisman contender is Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart?

The senior is now favorite No. 5 for Heisman at BetMGM at +2000 after he threw six touchdowns in the Rebels’ blowout win over Arkansas in Week 10. Dart accounted for two-thirds of Ole Miss’ scoring in the 63-31 win as he was 25-of-31 passing for 515 yards. Yes, he threw as many incompletions as he threw touchdown passes.

It was a touchdown explosion from a player who hadn’t accounted for many targets in recent weeks. Since throwing four touchdowns in Ole Miss’ win over Georgia Southern on Sept. 21, Dart had thrown just three TDs over the Rebels’ last four games. It’s no coincidence that his lack of TD passes had coincided with Ole Miss’ 2-2 record in that stretch, either. Ole Miss is fourth in the nation in scoring at just over 42 points per game, but the win over Arkansas was the first time the Rebels scored over 27 in an SEC game this season.

The productive game against Arkansas also couldn’t have come at a better time to bolster the hopes of the Ole Miss fan base. Saturday’s home game against Georgia is a must.

At 7-2 and 3-2 in the SEC, the Rebels have no margin for error in both the SEC title race and the pursuit of the College Football Playoff. And they don’t have another big game left either. After a week off in Week 12, Ole Miss plays Florida and Mississippi State to close out the season.

If Ole Miss is going to compete for the playoffs, it needs to beat Georgia. And if Dart is really going to contend for the Heisman, he needs to have a big game when Ole Miss beats Georgia.

Darts season statistics are very good. He leads the nation in passing yards with 3,210, though he has played one more game than many of his peers. But he’s not just racking up those laps via quantity. He is also tops in the nation with 11.6 yards per pass attempt. Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke is second with 10.5 yards per pass. No other QB is in double figures.

However, it’s hard to see Dart winning the Heisman without Ole Miss making the playoffs or maybe even making the SEC title game. Yes, Jayden Daniels won the Heisman a season ago while LSU went 9-3 and didn’t sniff the playoffs, but Dart doesn’t have the rushing stats that Daniels had. Just like last season, Dart is averaging 3.3 yards per carry after sacks and has only rushed for three TDs. He currently ranks 10th among all players in total touchdowns. Daniels finished second in 2023 and averaged the most points per game of any player.

A win over Georgia on Saturday moves the Darts further into the Heisman conversation. But that still might not be enough to make him more than a trivial finalist at best.

Here are our four other players to watch in Week 11:

Colorado DB/WR Travis Hunter (+175): Hunter has become the nominal favorite over Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel as Colorado is now in the thick of the Big 12 title race, thanks to losses to Kansas State and Iowa State in Week 10. As long as Hunter stays healthy, it will be a surprise if he’s not a Heisman finalist.

Miami QB Cam Ward (+200): Ward’s odds are ahead of Gabriel’s because he has run a Miami team that has defensive deficiencies that Oregon does not. Ward leads the nation with 29 passing TDs and should add a few to that total against Georgia Tech on Saturday.

Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel (+300): Is Saturday night a chance for Gabriel to add to his stats? The Ducks are 25-point favorites at home against Maryland. The Terrapins just gave up 48 points to Minnesota and allowed 37 to Northwestern.

Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (+500): Jeanty finally has a chance to play on prime time network television on Saturday. Yes, Boise State’s home game against Nevada is at the same time as Alabama’s trip to LSU, but at least Jeanty will be on Fox at a time when most college football fans are awake.